By CRU China CEO John Johnson and Economist Yingrui Wang Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members. For information on upgrading to a Premium level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. China’s Five-Year Plan (FYP) is a key guide to the strategic direction of China. In this Insight we explain the significance […]
By CRU Principal Analyst James Campbell, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service The recent acceleration in news of a pre-approved vaccine has led us to bring forward the economic recovery to the first half of 2021. Confidence has returned and spending is resuming. An earlier-than-expected vaccine provides upside risks to our automotive and construction outlook. […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Steel Monitor In this Global Economic Outlook, we look ahead to 2021 and outline our top ten calls for the global economy. These include predictions on Covid-19 vaccines, world growth, the auto and construction sectors, the U.S. dollar, monetary and fiscal policy, […]
The ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations in October posting a score of 59.3 percent, a 3.9 percent increase from September and indicating factory growth for the fifth consecutive month. “The manufacturing economy continued its recovery in October,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Survey committee members reported that […]
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI reached a 29-month high in October, posting a score of 53.0. Manufacturing output expanded across consumer, intermediate and investment goods industries with the weakest sector consumer goods. Twenty of 26 countries in the survey saw manufacturing activity increase, however activity in Japan, Greece, Malaysia, Indonesia and Russia contracted last […]
The Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity has called for renewed action to address excess steel capacity during a time of economic crisis. The forum offered its analysis and recommendations in its 2020 GFSEC Ministerial Report. “The pandemic has led the world economy into its worst downturn in decades,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, executive vice-president if GSFEC […]
Editor’s note 11/3/20: Some of the data as originally published in Table 1 was incorrect due to a spreadsheet error (specifically the change in shipments 3M Y/Y column). The table has been updated with the correct information below. Mill shipments and supply of sheet products have turned, albeit slightly, since reaching bottom in […]
In most regions in Q2 2020, gross domestic product, as reported by the states, declined by more than the nationally reported number. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports GDP by state and region on a quarterly basis. This data is released several weeks after the national report, but the BEA has committed to getting […]
The Chicago Business Barometer marked its fourth consecutive month of expansion with a PMI of 61.1 in October. The headline index eased slightly from last month’s reading of 62.4 with only new orders advancing during October, gaining just 0.2 points. The production index fell 5.9 points and backlogs eased to a two-month low. The inventories […]
GDP contraction in the second quarter of 2020 was the highest ever recorded at negative 31.4 percent. Growth in the third quarter was also the highest ever at positive 33.1 percent. GDP in Q3 was 2.9 percent below the first quarter result. On Oct. 29, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook In this Global Economic Outlook, we reflect on some of the most important risks to the forecast we discussed with clients during LME week. Three issues were foremost: risks to the recovery from the second Covid-19 wave, policy stimulus […]
The final outcome of next week’s presidential election may well boil down to the difference in turnout–in just a handful of counties in three pivotal swing states–among two key demographics: non-college-educated working class males for Trump vs. college-educated suburban women for Biden, predicts Dr. David Schultz, political analyst and professor of political science and legal […]
Orders for durable goods increased for the fifth straight month, up 1.9 percent to $237.1 billion and surpassing expectations. Transportation orders led the increase with a 4.1 percent gain. Automotive orders rose 1.5 percent in September on continued strong sales for SUV’s and light trucks. The commercial airline industry, showing losses through the pandemic, had […]
Steel associations from around the globe called on steel-producing economies to intensify their work in the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity. Recent increases in steel overcapacity have reversed a three-year declining trend and are of “tremendous concern” during a pandemic where steel demand is severely depressed. The associations urge participating countries in the Global […]
Economic activity grew at a slight to modest pace in early October with inconsistency among sectors, says the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book. Manufacturing activity growth was moderate and the sector added jobs across the country. Demand for new and existing homes kept residential construction robust, but interest in commercial real estate leasing deteriorated. Construction […]
With early voting underway, record breaking mail-in ballots, and a final voting date a mere 14 days away, it is safe to say that much is riding on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. With two candidates who share little common ground in a bitter election battle, it’s clear that a shift in presidential administration will […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Steel Monitor It now seems clear that Joe Biden will become U.S. president in January. However, it is likely that the Republicans will maintain their Senate majority. This will significantly limit Biden’s ability to implement his economic policy agenda. In this insight, we […]
By CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor The dollar has been extremely volatile over the past two quarters. Underlying this is macroeconomic uncertainty linked to the coronavirus pandemic. We expect such uncertainty and volatility to continue into Q4, but trade-weighted dollar and dollar-euro to be range bound around a stable trend. […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) was unchanged m/m in October at 225.6 following large price increases the prior month. Supply in many markets became more available as prices rose, and this helped prevent additional upside pressure. For November, market sentiment is that prices […]
By CRU Analysts Ben Carstein and Lize Wan On Oct. 9, it was reported that Chinese state-owned power plants and steel mills had received verbal notice from China’s customs to stop importing Australian metallurgical and thermal coal with immediate effect. In this article, we review the announcement and its potential implications. Has the Announcement Been […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 10 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 30 days and against 12 in the last 90 days, which is similar to the declines we reported in our September update. The biggest changes in the last 90 days were in the value of the […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 15 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 30 days and against 12 in the last 90 days, which is similar to the declines we reported in our last two updates. The biggest changes in the last 90 days were in the value of […]
Manufacturing activity continued to expand in New York during October, but at a slower pace. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index slipped seven points to 10.5, decreasing more than expected by analysts. New orders and shipments continued to expand and unfilled orders declined. Inventories were a little leaner and delivery times remained steady. […]
By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service 2020 has seen an unusual recession that was brought on by a pandemic. To match this, the shape of the recovery is likely to be equally unusual. The U.S. recovery is starting to lose momentum, with more slowing to come in 2021. Large uncertainties lie […]
The World Trade Organization has adjusted its outlook on world trade volume to a more optimistic view. In its latest report, the WTO forecast global trade volume to fall 9.2 percent in 2020 instead of 12.9 percent as predicted in the April trade forecast. Trade volume will rebound in 2021 to 7.2 percent, but remain […]
Downstream steel product shipments are recovering from the COVID-driven panic that began in April. The Census Bureau provides monthly data on inventories, shipments and new orders for total U.S. manufacturing and for individual industries, one of which is steel products. Every two months, Steel Market Update extracts data from the Census Bureau to provide a […]
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Steel Committee expressed concern over unbalanced steel market conditions in a new report following its 88th Session last week. Steel capacity continues to increase despite a slump in demand caused by the global pandemic. The OECD says global steelmaking capacity is expected to increase to 2,455.8 million metric tons […]
U.S. consumer confidence has suffered drastically from the pandemic, but has shown some positive signs of late. The composite value of consumer confidence in September, reported by The Conference Board, was 101.8, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time since March 2020. The three-month moving average (3MMA) moved up to 93.3. Despite the increase, the […]
By CRU Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham and CRU Research Analyst Eric Lucking, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service At CRU, we forecast the exchange rates for all the countries where our relevant commodities are produced. Our short and medium-term view is reviewed each quarter. This is anchored to our long-term forecast, which uses a […]
Steel prices continued their upward trajectory in September as demand rose further and mills announced more increases on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized products. Steel Market Update’s hot rolled price averaged $568 per ton in September, an increase of more than $100 month/month, and has since topped the $600 mark. Average prices for prime […]